New Year's Eve Snow?

Hey everyone, it is COLD this morning. Temps across the area are down into the 20’s, and that’s not the only interesting development in our weather on this New Year’s Eve... A splitting low pressure system is just offshore, one which was previously modeled to give us little or no moisture. The trend recently however has been for SLIGHTLY more moisture, as evidenced by this morning.  This is the current radar image is of 7:45 AM, with plenty of shower activity offshore, side-by-side with a zoomed 36km image from the 00z WRF-GFS model. Notice the discrepancy in moisture? Curious to see how 12z looks (which is running right now)

Tonight is another tricky portion of the forecast... The aforementioned WRF continues to show slightly increasing moisture for this afternoon, and with a temp/dp spread that we will have due to the cold dry east wind, along with moderate cloud cover holding temps down all day, this would presumably fall as snow. Here is last night’s 00z 4km WRF-GFS moisture image for 4pm this afternoon.
It shows modest moisture (.2-.5”) but as I’ve shown, it MAY be underdone. As more model data and OBS come available, as I will pass on any thoughts to you. I currently think at the most we could see a quick inch or a dusting, but I may amend that later. Keep it right here for the latest
-Josh Gardner



UPDATE: 12z model data is in and showing some very interesting developments. As I mentioned before the trend had been for more precip, and 12z did not disappoint in that regard. The ‎12z WRF 4km for 4pm this afternoon is wetter than previous runs... Steady light precip for 2-3 hours...

And then here's the 4km snow model for the same time.. Trace-1" across the entire metro area.

Now Snowing Across the Area

Well rain has turned to snow now across much of the area, as the precip is doing a good job cooling down the atmosphere, and temps are dropping at the surface. Here in Gresham, down to 34.0 and still some precip moving across the area. Here are the current Tower Temps and Radar... I will update this as conditions change..

Christmas Eve Eve Update

Happy Holidays everyone. Interesting setup for this afternoon/tonight that has developed basically out of thin air... Seems like that's how it works around here. Anyway there is a low pressure "shortwave" swinging over the reigon this afternoon and areas east of the Cascades are getting pounded with snow. But will any of that make it westside? That's where the surprise comes in... Colder air is wrapping around the low, and temps are dropping across the area (specifically east metro). Now here's where it's interesting... According to the 12z WRF, (another update will be forthcoming following all 18z model data) by 5-7pm 925 mb temps are projected to drop to at or below 0c. Steady precip during that same time MAY allow for cooling of the atmopshere and for snow levels to drop rapidly this afternoon. I'm going to update this in the next hour or so, but here's the 12z WRF images I referenced... 

12z WRF-GFS 4km Precip Map for 4pm

12z WRF-GFS 4km 925mb Temps for 4pm. Notice the light easterly flow as well

Potential for Overrunning Snow Late Tuesday into Wednesday...

SNOW or RAIN?

There is a POTENTIAL for decent snowfall tonight, but everything needs to line up just right (like always!)... The setup is due to the cold air we already have in place, and an approaching warm front, this front will eventually raise snow levels well off the valley floor, but when it does will be crucial to snowfall in the PDX metro. The most important thing we're currently seeing is a slight offshore gradient (meaning winds are not coming off the ocean but towards them). This is what gives us our east wind... ANY, and I mean ANY sort of east wind tonight will make a dramatic difference in snow chances. It is forecast to get up to a healthy gradient of -4 to -5 from The Dalles to Troutdale, which in the east metro may provide some slightly breezy east wind for a few hours, enough to hold onto the cold for that much longer, and with the approaching warm front that could be all we need. Below is the image that I'm referring to, it can be a bit confusing but it is read from right to left, the red and blue plots mark pressure at Troutdale and The Dalles respectively, as you can see in the last couple of hours the gradient has switched to offshore...

Now the front I'm talking about is just now pushing showers into the coast range, with the heavier precip forecasted for 2-4am... This is the time period to watch for the possibility of some decent snowfall, but like I said, it all comes down to how strong this cold air and offshore flow can hold on..

As you can see this setup is about as borderline as it gets... But if the factors line up right we may get a few hours of good snow out of it.. Ill leave you for now with both the Short Term portion of tonights AFD, as well as the Winter Weather Advisory that goes into effect at 2am

SHORT TERM...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. A COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING
HAS RESULTED IN COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FREEZING LEVEL IS NEAR 1000 FEET THIS
EVENING. SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TONIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AROUND 150 MILES
OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE LANGLEY HILL RADAR IMAGERY IS JUST SHOWING
RAIN OR VIRGA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 70 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE
WASHINGTON OREGON BORDER. WARMER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND RISE SNOW LEVELS...BUT NOT LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION.

EASTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR FROM
EASTERN OREGON THROUGH THE GORGE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION...AND CAN EXPECT A GOOD DOSE OF SNOW FOR THE GORGE AND
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THIS COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW IN THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS AS WELL.

THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA
BEFORE THE WARM FRONT BRINGS WARMER AIR BUT THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW.PRECIPITATION LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE
INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATING SNOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HAVING LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING AFTER 3 AM...BUT NOT REALLY ACCUMULATING UNTIL AFTER 5 AM.
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW EARLY WED
AM...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN AND SNOW BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9
AM...THEN JUST RAIN. 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH A FEW
AREAS GETTING UP TO 3 INCHES. BUT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD...THE WARM AIR ARRIVAL
SHOULD LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN 1 INCH.

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PST TUE DEC 18 2012

ORZ005-006-WAZ022-039-191400-
/O.CON.KPQR.WW.Y.0033.121219T1000Z-121219T1800Z/
LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-I-
5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. HELENS...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...
OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...TROUTDALE...LONGVIEW...KELSO...
VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...CAMAS...WASHOUGAL
307 PM PST TUE DEC 18 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM
PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...CLARK COUNTY AND
THE I5 CORRIDOR...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO
10 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM
PST WEDNESDAY.

* TONIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
  TONIGHT. GENERALLY...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR LATE
  TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS TOWARDS EASTERN
  CLARK COUNTY AND THE WEST HILLS MAY SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES.

* SNOW LEVELS TODAY...WILL LOWER TO NEAR VALLEY FLOOR LATER
  TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO
  2500 FEET QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

Snow Updates... Monday PM - Tuesday AM

Lowland Snow 

12/17-12/18

Dusting of Snow in Oregon City
(via Jeff Raetz)

(8:40pm) Snow is now falling across parts of the metro area, as temps at the lower elevations are hovering around 35, with locations at or around 1000' hitting 32. The cold air over our area following last night's wind is allowing for only limited moisture, and most showers will be spotty. Perfect example is from just a few miles south in Oregon City (550'), a quick hitting shower produced a dusting. Lets take a look at the current radar and KPTV tower temps, which give us a good idea of where the freezing level is across Portland

These are the tower temps as of 7:00pm, the freezing level is hovering around 1000 feet, but freezing level and snow level, can differ greatly. That's why the forecast for tonight, while the likeliest locations for sticking snow are 500-1000' and up, anywhere could see a trace-1".

 

This is the current radar image as of 8:55 pm. As you can see, showers are scattered in nature, and will continue to be that way throughout the night. Shower activity, if it were to increase would likely be from midnight to sunrise (per the NWS). Please add all reports of snow, temps, etc in the comments. and I will be updating this throughout the night.

(12:21 am) It is currently looking like my original forecast will be right, showers are very spotty and temps at lower elevations (below 500') are still above freezing (around 35 F)... Places in the hills have seen some accumulations, and continue to expect that throughout the night. The reason we're not cooling off and more despite cold air aloft is the light southerly wind in the area. This ALWAYS prevents snow at the lowest elevations, as it keeps it just warm enough. Due to that ice in the am will not be a huge problem, but it may be spotty and could be slick as you go up in elevation or in the typical cold pockets. I will be breifly updating this when I check again...

(1:41 am) ALOT more shower activity picking up out offshore and into the coast range, most impressive radar returns of the night. I'm expecting around 2:30-4:00am to be our best shot at snow nearly anywhere, as these showers seem strong enough to pull the snow level down the extra bit needed. As you can see below, precip is really picking up to our west, so I wouldn't rule out a quick trace-inch anywhere 

(4:06 AM) Pretty good wet snow falling right now here, radar continues to look good and the temp is down to 34.0.. Nothing sticking yet but it will at this rate. Higher hills likely have snow on the ground now

Storm Update

Sunday, December 16, 2012
11:20 P.M.

10:30 pm PST Sun 16 Dec 2012 - West Coast 4km NWS water vapor satellite

Hello all, this is Charlie Phillips posting on behalf of Josh Gardner. I'm not from Rip City, but I am from Jet City, and the weather we are experiencing up here is similar to what you guys are getting down there.

However, there is one significant difference. Portland will be significantly windier than Seattle for the rest of tonight into Monday morning. Although it's a little hard to tell on the satellite picture, the center of the low pressure system is actually further south than even the models predicted. It's expected to roar ashore around Destruction Island on the Washington Coast and then head over Seattle as it makes its way eastward. Since the pressure gradients at the center of the storm are relatively light, Seattle will see light winds at first, and then stronger winds as the low passes through and Seattle feels the wrath of the bent-back occlusion of the cyclone, or, as some like to call it, the "poisonous tail." Portland will be under the influence of a larger pressure gradient and will see higher winds. This won't be anything like the Hanukkah Eve Storm of 2006 even for Portland, but it will be the windiest storm to strike the Willamette Valley so far this autumn/winter. The coast will get pummeled with 25 foot waves and sustained storm force winds of 40-50 knots, with occasional gusts to 60 knots. I would not be surprised if a few of the isolated headlands, such as Cape Blanco, Mt. Hebo, or Naselle Ridge, see a triple-digit gust from this storm.

This storm is also bringing gobs of snow to the Cascades. In fact, a blizzard warning is in effect for the central Washington Cascades down all the way to southern Oregon. The snowiest locations, like Mt. Rainier, Mt. Baker, and Mt. Hood, could receive up to three feet of snow from this storm. There will also be very strong winds on the ridges, which should come as no surprise. The Northwest Avalanche Control Center is actually forecasting 70-90 mph winds at 9,000 feet in the southern Washington Cascades. I can't think of any reason you would like to be up there, unless you REALLY like flying kites.

But you shouldn't just stay out of the highest mountains in the Cascades; you should stay out of the passes too.

It's hard to see in this picture, but Snoqualmie Pass has compact snow and ice on the ground with blizzard conditions outside. Great for skiers... I'm definitely looking forward to going up this week... but not so great for travelers. The pass is closed in several places due to collisions, so it might be better to wait a day to travel over the pass.

I love having these "triple threat" (rain, wind, snow) storms come through the area. It's just what I needed, and it couldn't have come at a better time. It's definitely an early Christmas present for us weather geeks!

Stay safe, warm, and happy. :)
Charlie Phillips
charliesweatherforecasts.blogspot.com
weatheron.net

12/16-12/17 Windstorm LIVE BLOG

WINDSTORM LIVE BLOG

(9:13 pm) Seeing as we are only a couple hours from what could be the biggest storm in at least a decade, I've decided to do a live blog throughout the night, with Observations, Insights, Updates and more regarding the storm. I also hope to have other people from the weather community chime in, as more knowledge is always helpful. I will be posting warnings pertaining to our area, as well as any power outage info. Any questions or personal Observations, please include in the comments section. All updates will include a timestamp, as well as any info on guest posters... Get ready, it's going to be a long night...

(10:37 pm) Winds have REALLY begun to pick up here in Gresham. Gusting now into the 30's and nearing 40, but that's just the start. Here's the latest from the 930pm AFD from the PDX NWS

UPGRADED SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO A HIGH WIND 
  WARNING. OVER 18000 ARE WITHOUT POWER IN CORVALLIS AND THE HIGHEST 
  WIND GUSTS REPORTED SO FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE SOUTH VALLEY. AT THIS 
  POINT...NOT SEEING ANY REASON WHY WINDS WOULD NECESSARILY CAUSE ANY 
  LESS DAMAGE OR BE LESS STRONG THAN FURTHER NORTH.   
   
  WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THEIR PEAK LEVELS 
  BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM THOUGH. THIS SHOULD CHANGE SHORTLY AS THE PRESSURE 
  GRADIENT INCREASES EVEN FURTHER AS THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION PUSHES 
  INLAND.  
   
  THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION AND THE BURST OF WEST WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW 
  SHOULD HIT THE COAST WITHIN ROUGHLY THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BASED ON 
  SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION. THIS MINI FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND AN HOUR OR 
  TWO THEREAFTER...AFTER WHICH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN KEUG AND 
  KPDX SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TO ROUGHLY 10MB. PEAK GRADIENTS 
  WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM...AND HENCE THIS APPEARS TO 
  BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR HIGH WINDS TO SURFACE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE 
  VALLEY. GIVEN THE ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES THUS FAR...I WOULD EXPECT 
  WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES IF THESE WINDS SURFACE LATER TONIGHT. 

So the south valley is really getting hammered at the moment... Recent gusts from that area include...

SALEM AIRPORT: 46 MPH
CORVALLIS AIRPORT: 43 MPH
EUGENE: 44 MPH

These are just the beginning. The gust of 43 isn't overly impressive, yet as mentioned, 18000 w/o power in Corvallis alone. I've got some homework to catch up on, but will be posting a new update by midnight, and sooner if anything develops...

(12:15 AM) Its getting real out there now... Low is just now making landfall, (image at left via Michael Trofimov) and the winds are increasing rapidly across the area as I'm awaiting the latest gust data from various locations. But just listening here, I'd venture to guess 40-50 as the nearest station to me is up to 40 MPH. What is going to really cause the most damaging winds is the "bent back occlusion" which is the tail of the low which "bends" over the area essentially whipping gusty winds around the low. When this hits, the strongest winds will occur, and this is when I'm expecting to see 50-60 MPH, if not 70+ somewhere. Let's now take a look at the latest power outage data via PGE and Pacific Power.

PGE UPDATE 

PACIFIC POWER UPDATE

Albany

Area of outage: Zip code 97321
Power restored: 11:02 p.m. PST
Is your power still off? Please call 1-877-508-5088

Updated 11:45 p.m. PST on December 16

Astoria

Area of outage: Zip code 97103
Estimated time of restoration: Unknown at this time, please check back for updates
Cause: Unknown
Customers affected: Approximately 3 customers are without power, down from 1400 earlier
Crew: On site and repairs are underway

Updated 12:15 a.m. PST on December 17

Coquille

Area of outage: Zip code 97423
Estimated time of restoration: Unknown at this time, please check back for updates
Cause: Wind
Customers affected: Approximately 138 customers are without power, down from 1,625
Crew: On site and repairs are underway

Updated 12:15 a.m. PST on December 17

Broadbent, Myrtle Point, and Powers

Area of outage: Zip code 97414, 97458, and 97466
Estimated time of restoration: Unknown at this time, check back for updates
Cause: Unknown
Customers affected: Approximately customers 862 customers are without power
Crew: On site and repairs are underway

Updated 12:15 a.m. PST on December 17

Independence

Area of outage: Zip code 97351
Estimated time of restoration: Unknown at this time, please check back for updates
Cause: Unknown
Customers affected: Approximately 2,776 customers are without power
Crew: On site and repairs are underway

Updated 12:15 a.m. PST on December 17

North Bend and Coos Bay

Area of outage: Zip codes 97459 and 97420
Estimated time of restoration: Unknown at this time, please check back for updates
Cause: Power line interruption
Customers affected: Approximately 533 customers are without power, down from 3325 earlier
Crew: On site and repairs are underway

Updated 12:15 a.m. PST on December 17

Roseburg

Area of outage: Zip code 97471
Estimated time of restoration: Unknown at this time, please check back for updates
Cause: Unknown
Customers affected: Approximately 3,268 customers are without power, down from 3,618 earlier
Crew: Dispatched

Updated 12:15 a.m. PST on December 17

(12:54 AM)

This is from 10:57 pm, but thought I'd pass along the storm reports via PDX NWS... As you will see, there is ALOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
 1057 PM PST SUN DEC 16 2012
 
 ..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
 ..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..
 
 0315 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT                 44.63N 124.05W
 12/16/2012  M67.00 MPH       LINCOLN            OR   OTHER FEDERAL   
 
             HIGH WINDS ON THE YAQUINA BRIDGE, 44 MPH SUSTAINED, 67 
             MPH GUSTS.
 
 0418 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT                 44.63N 124.05W
 12/16/2012  M62.00 MPH       LINCOLN            OR   OTHER FEDERAL   
 
             AIRPORT AT NEWPORT, OR
 
 0424 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GARIBALDI               45.56N 123.91W
 12/16/2012  M73.00 MPH       TILLAMOOK          OR   OFFICIAL NWS OBS
 
 0440 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST LINCOLN CITY            44.97N 124.01W
 12/16/2012  M66.00 MPH       LINCOLN            OR   AMATEUR RADIO   
 
 0449 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT                 44.63N 124.05W
 12/16/2012  M72.00 MPH       LINCOLN            OR   OTHER FEDERAL   
 
             YAQUINA BRIDGE IN NEWPORT, 60 MPH SUSTAINED AND 72 MPH 
             GUSTS.
 
 0502 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CLATSOP SPIT            46.22N 124.00W
 12/16/2012  M58.00 MPH       CLATSOP            OR   OFFICIAL NWS OBS
 
 0519 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT                 44.63N 124.05W
 12/16/2012  M76.00 MPH       LINCOLN            OR   OTHER FEDERAL   
 
             YAQUINA BRIDGE IN NEWPORT, OR
 
 0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT     46.27N 124.08W
 12/16/2012  M84.00 MPH       PACIFIC            WA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS
 
 0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST LINCOLN CITY            44.97N 124.01W
 12/16/2012  M74.00 MPH       LINCOLN            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER 
 
 0615 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 10 NW DALLAS            45.02N 123.46W
 12/16/2012                   POLK               OR   AMATEUR RADIO   
 
             TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 22.
 
 0615 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KELSO                   46.13N 122.89W
 12/16/2012                   COWLITZ            WA   COUNTY OFFICIAL 
 
             POWER OUTAGES IN NORTH KELSO AND MT BRYNION IN COWLITZ 
             COUNTY, WA.
 
 0643 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST LINCOLN CITY            44.97N 124.01W
 12/16/2012  M81.00 MPH       LINCOLN            OR   AMATEUR RADIO   
 
             WINDS ATOP A 70 FT TOWER.
 
 0643 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CORVALLIS               44.57N 123.28W
 12/16/2012                   BENTON             OR   UTILITY COMPANY 
 
             POWER OUTAGES TO OVER 18,400 CUSTOMERS IN CORVALLIS, 
             LEBANNON, AND ALBANY, OR.
 
 0643 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S TILLAMOOK           45.38N 123.84W
 12/16/2012  M63.00 MPH       TILLAMOOK          OR   AMATEUR RADIO   
 
             TIERRA DEL MAR
 
 0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BLODGETT                44.60N 123.52W
 12/16/2012                   BENTON             OR   TRAINED SPOTTER 
 
             POWER OUTAGE. LARGE TREE BRANCHES BROKEN.
 
 0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DALLAS                  44.92N 123.31W
 12/16/2012  E0.00 MPH        POLK               OR   UTILITY COMPANY 
 
             POWER OUTAGES IN POLK COUNTY AFFECTING 115 PEOPLE. 
 
 0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG OREGON CITY             45.34N 122.60W
 12/16/2012                   CLACKAMAS          OR   UTILITY COMPANY 
 
             POWER OUTAGE IN CLACKAMAS COUNTY AFFECTING 368 CUSTOMERS.
 
 
 0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SALEM                   44.92N 123.02W
 12/16/2012                   MARION             OR   UTILITY COMPANY 
 
             POWER OUTAGES IN MARION COUNTY AFFECTING 1305 CUSTOMERS. 
 
 
 0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 10 S PORTLAND AIRPORT   45.45N 122.60W
 12/16/2012  E0.00 MPH        CLACKAMAS          OR   UTILITY COMPANY 
 
             POWER OUTAGES AFFECTING 143 CUSTOMERS IN MULTNOMAH 
             COUNTY.
 
 0711 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 E TIDEWATER           44.42N 123.78W
 12/16/2012                   LINCOLN            OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
 
             DOWNED TREES BLOCKING HIGHWAY 34 AT MILEPOST 16.
 
 0759 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CORVALLIS               44.57N 123.28W
 12/16/2012                   BENTON             OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
 
             WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES FROM CORVALLIS TO 
             LEBANON...ALONG HIGHWAY 20. 
 
 0933 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W HOLLEY              44.35N 122.80W
 12/16/2012                   LINN               OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
 
             DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES HAVE CLOSED HIGHWAY 228 FROM
             MILEPOST 16 TO 17. 
 
 0934 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 9 S DALLAS              44.79N 123.31W
 12/16/2012                   POLK               OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
 
             POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 223 AT MILEPOST 12.5 TO 13.0.
 
 
 0940 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 S MONROE              44.27N 123.30W
 12/16/2012                   LANE               OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
 
             DOWNED POWERLINES AND FIRE CLOSING HIGHWAY 99W. 
 
 1015 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG YAMHILL                 45.34N 123.18W
 12/16/2012                   YAMHILL            OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
 
             DOWNED POWERLINES AT MILEPOST 22.75 IN RURAL POLK COUNTY.
 
 
 1018 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 W ELSIE               45.87N 123.70W
 12/16/2012                   CLATSOP            OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
 
             TREE BRANCES AND/OR DEBRIS ON HIGHWAY 26 AFFECTING BOTH 
             LANES. 
 
 1023 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PACIFIC CITY            45.20N 123.96W
 12/16/2012  M61.00 MPH       TILLAMOOK          OR   MESONET         
 
             SUSTAINED SOUTH WIND 30 TO 40 MPH. GUSTS 61 MPH.
 
 1035 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S TILLAMOOK           45.40N 123.84W
 12/16/2012  M60.00 MPH       TILLAMOOK          OR   AWOS            
 
             SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 35 TO 40 MPH. GUSTS 60 
             MPH. 
 
 1036 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 14 S COTTAGE GROVE      43.60N 123.06W
 12/16/2012                   LANE               OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
 
             DOWNED TREE BRANCES AND DEBRIS AFFECTING 1 LANE AND 
             SHOULDER ON INTERSTATE 5. 
 
 1055 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE TILLAMOOK          45.45N 123.83W
 12/16/2012  M65.00 MPH       TILLAMOOK          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER 

(2:00 AM) Starting to wonder how the power isn't out here.. Seen several limbs snap off of trees and become fling debris, alot of large branches down, gusting well into the 50's now. 

Outages now up to 12,000 + for PGE, including an outage in my zip code.

Impending Storm... Noon Update

Well, I went to bed last night thinking I created this blog at a good time... We had an impending wind storm, so lots of material right? Well now, this has turned into a SERIOUS event. Before we were talking on par with the Dec 14, 2006 storm (Hanukkah Eve Storm) which produced 50-80 mph gusts in the interior valleys, with the strongest up near Seattle. We now may be talking something more serious than that... But don't just take my word for it, here's the recently updated High Wind Warning from the PDX NWS...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 AM PST SUN DEC 16 2012

ORZ005>007-010-WAZ022-039-040-170600-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0019.121217T0200Z-121217T2000Z/
LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-I-
5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. HELENS...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...
OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...TROUTDALE...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...SANDY...
SWEET HOME...LONGVIEW...KELSO...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...
CAMAS...WASHOUGAL...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR
930 AM PST SUN DEC 16 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON PST MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND FOOTHILLS
OF THE CASCADES...AS WELL AS CLARK COUNTY AND THE NORTH AND SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON PST MONDAY.

* WINDS: WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING...WITH SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS 45 TO 60
  MPH EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN
  SOUTHWEST TO WEST 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH. THE
  STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN LARGE OPEN AREAS...AND HIGHER HILLS
  EXPOSED TO SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS.

* TIMING: INCREASING THIS EVENING...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
  BETWEEN 11 PM TONIGHT AND 6 AM MONDAY.

* IMPACTS: POWER DISRUPTIONS ARE LIKELY. WITH SATURATED
  GROUND...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY TOPPLE TREES AND CAUSE
  DAMAGE. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING ON INTERSTATE 5...
  205... 84...AND OTHER HIGHWAYS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG
  WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

This is now a serious situation, but what made the NWS so sure of a much stronger storm? That would  be the 12z model runs from this morning. The WRF-GFS is a model developed at UW, which is tailored to help predict PNW weather. Using it I'm going to walk you through this storms TIMING, IMPACT  and DEVELOPMENT Here's the 4km (resolution) surface pressure model.

Notice the lines so close together over our area? Those are isobars, which show differences in pressure... The tighter they are, the stronger the wind. This image is from hour 18, which corresponds to 10pm tonight, right before the peak winds. The low has made landfall around 972mb at this point. Below is the wind gust model from the same time...

Not super impressive yet, gusts of 25-35 KTS (30-40 MPH), but check out the SLP and Wind gusts for hour 21, just 3 hours later...

After the low is inland, the isobars oriant slightly differently, allowing for the strongest winds (now out of the SSW) to slam our area. Widespread 35-40 KTS (40-50 MPH) with areas down in the south valley towards Salem reaching 50 KTS (60+ MPH). Also note the area just off of Astoria which is shaded white. That is an area of gusts that are out of the range of the model (which goes up to 70 KTS or 80 MPH) which suggest 80-100 MPH winds just offshore. 

SO, what does all of this mean? We have a storm moving in that WILL do damage, best to prepare now for it. I will update the blog later as more details become apparent, and as actual observations begin to roll in. I will also open up a section for any blog followers with personal weather stations to comment with their OBS... Thank you, and you should hear from me soon.

Plain English AFDs!

Our fine friends over at the Portland NWS tend to play it just a bit safer than extreme weather lovers as myself, so this kind of bullish forecast is nice to see... In my first feature that will be updated during significant weather,  I will post important/interesting portions of the AFD, and interpret them in plain english!


*Convective Potential*
DURING THIS TIME...STRONG DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH A DESTABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SOMEWHAT LINEARLY

ORGANIZED...MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS A
RESULT...A MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD.

Translation:

The incoming system on Sunday night will not only bring the chance for significant winds, but thunderstorms will be possible due to the instability that comes with such a storm...

*Wind Description, Possible Warning?*
MEANWHILE...THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT HIGH WINDS
WILL SURFACE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH IN
WASHINGTON. THE LATEST GFS ADVERTISES A 9MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
KEUG AND KPDX WITH KAST HOVERING NEAR 985MB AT ITS LOWEST PRESSURE.
THIS IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EASTWARD MOVING AND
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING NATURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
ASHORE...PRESSURE COUPLETS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WOULD LIKE
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE...AND THIS JUST IS NOT APPARENT IN THE MODELS.
THE MODELS PICK UP ON THIS BY KEEPING 925MB AND 850MB WINDS MORE WEST
THAN SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH DESPITE CRANKING AT
40-60KT...WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR SOUTH WINDS TO CHARGE UP
THE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...SUSPECT THE A WIND ADVISORY WILL STILL BE
NECESSARY...AND WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO PUT OUT
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE INTERIOR. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO AT
LEAST A FEW FALLING TREES WITH THE CURRENT SATURATED SOIL.

Translation:

 IT's GOING TO BE WINDY!.... But seriously, when we start talking the kinds of pressure gradients (differences in pressure between two locations) mentioned above take note. Also impressed with the mention of not only a possible Wind Advisory, but a possible High Wind Warning

Intro... Welcome to RipCity Weather!

RipCity Weather

"A Fresh and Modern take on Pacific Northwest Weather Forecasting!"

Welcome to RipCity Weather, I'm Josh Gardner... I'm 17 and a self-proclaimed weather geek... I'm much more than that though. As an athlete, student and all around outgoing person, upon visiting this blog, expect an educated yet fresh take on weather in the Pacific Northwest! Fortunately for you, this blog has been developed at a time of rather interesting weather across our area, as winter has truly returned to the Northwest and as you can see in the wintery image from this morning (photo credit: Lincoln Graves KATU News) snow is back! Which should give me plenty of material... If you enjoy weather in ANY way, you've come to the right place! So as I said earlier, Welcome, and get ready...