Sunday, December 16, 2012

Plain English AFDs!

Our fine friends over at the Portland NWS tend to play it just a bit safer than extreme weather lovers as myself, so this kind of bullish forecast is nice to see... In my first feature that will be updated during significant weather,  I will post important/interesting portions of the AFD, and interpret them in plain english!


*Convective Potential*
DURING THIS TIME...STRONG DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH A DESTABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SOMEWHAT LINEARLY
ORGANIZED...MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS A
RESULT...A MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD.





Translation:



The incoming system on Sunday night will not only bring the chance for significant winds, but thunderstorms will be possible due to the instability that comes with such a storm...

*Wind Description, Possible Warning?*
MEANWHILE...THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT HIGH WINDS
WILL SURFACE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH IN
WASHINGTON. THE LATEST GFS ADVERTISES A 9MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
KEUG AND KPDX WITH KAST HOVERING NEAR 985MB AT ITS LOWEST PRESSURE.
THIS IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EASTWARD MOVING AND
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING NATURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
ASHORE...PRESSURE COUPLETS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. WE WOULD LIKE
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE...AND THIS JUST IS NOT APPARENT IN THE MODELS.
THE MODELS PICK UP ON THIS BY KEEPING 925MB AND 850MB WINDS MORE WEST
THAN SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH DESPITE CRANKING AT
40-60KT...WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR SOUTH WINDS TO CHARGE UP
THE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...SUSPECT THE A WIND ADVISORY WILL STILL BE
NECESSARY...AND WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE NEED TO PUT OUT
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE INTERIOR. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO AT
LEAST A FEW FALLING TREES WITH THE CURRENT SATURATED SOIL.







Translation:



 IT's GOING TO BE WINDY!.... But seriously, when we start talking the kinds of pressure gradients (differences in pressure between two locations) mentioned above take note. Also impressed with the mention of not only a possible Wind Advisory, but a possible High Wind Warning

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